Thailands concerns over the rise of the Thai Baht

BANGKOK: -- The Bank of Thailand is widely expected to take action soon to rein appreciation of the baht as its "excessive" gain is having a widespread negative impact on the export sector as well as the government's tax revenue.

 

Bank of Thailand's former chairman says BOT should buy more dollars.

According to this article i found today on Thai Visa Thai's are getting concerned about the continual growing strength of the Thai baht against major currencies. Check out the article below...

Markets are braced for the action. Touching a new 16-year high yesterday with a 0.18 per cent rise from Friday's closing to 25.58 per US dollar, the baht later lost 0.2 per cent to 28.74 at 3.12pm. So far this month, the baht has gained more than 2 per cent against the dollar and 8 per cent over the Japanese yen, making Thai goods more expensive in the countries where trade is denominated in the two currencies.

Pakorn Peetathawatchai, Stock Exchange of Thailand’s executive vice-president, yesterday recommended investors to closely monitor exchange rates, saying that there could be capital controls due to the baht's excessive gain.

"It remains to be seen how the authorities will act to control the hot money. We can't afford to take no action. We have never witnessed the baht appreciate this quickly, or the sharp rise in the stock market like this," Pakorn said.

In the first quarter, the SET index gained 12.15 per cent, making it the world's best-performing market after Vietnam (18.7 per cent), the Philippines (17.1 per cent), Laos (15.9 per cent) and Indonesia (14.5 per cent). Overseas investors bought US$2 billion more Thai sovereign debt than they sold this month through to April 19, adding to net purchases of $9.8 billion in the first quarter.

To stem the baht's appreciation, former Bank of Thailand chairman MR Chatu Mongol Sonakul urged the central bank to buy more dollars, rather than cut the policy rate.

Speaking on the sidelines of a seminar yesterday, Chatu Mongol said that it is necessary to take care of the export sector, which is suffering acutely. He said he understood that financial stability is the BOT's priority, but it should also pay attention to economic progress.

He noted that heavier sterilisation - the buying of US dollars to depress the baht's price - would boost the BOT's accounting loss, but said that's just a figure. China's central bank has also accumulated more than $3 trillion in foreign currencies to stabilise the yuan. With reserves of more than $200 million - 60 per cent of gross national product (GNP), the BOT has the capacity to strengthen its sterilisation efforts, Chatu Mongol said.

He strongly opposed a cut in the policy rate, as suggested by Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong and exporters, saying that could spur consumption and hence inflation.

"It's better for the central bank to shoulder the sterilisation cost than to cut the rate, as higher inflation would affect the entire country," he said.

Foreseeing continued inflows of foreign capital, he noted that it was time to allocate some foreign reserves to finance a sovereign wealth fund, as the fund's overseas investment would counter capital inflows.

Hurting revenues:

While saying that the baht's rise is too fast, Paiboon Kittisrikangwan, an assistant governor of the Bank of Thailand, was adamant that BOT had policy options in hand. Yet, for now, it wants to observe market reactions and assess the necessity of measures.

On Friday, the Commerce Ministry, which still maintains this year's export target at 8 to 9 per cent, will hold a discussion with exporters. The Thai Frozen Foods Association earlier estimated that its producers will lose Bt20 billion for every Bt1 increase in the baht against the dollar. The association is fretting that it may fail to achieve its revenue target of Bt1 trillion this year.

The strong baht is also now expected to hurt the government's revenue projections.

Wanee Thasanamontien, principal adviser on tax strategies, said that export-oriented companies in particular will see a sharp decline in revenue when dollar-denominated income is converted to baht. With lower profits, the companies will also pay lower income taxes.

Meanwhile, the stronger baht would make dollar-denominated imports cheaper. The Revenue Department, which collects taxes according to CIF (cost, insurance and freight) rates, will then collect a smaller amount of tax.

This will further lessen the department's revenue, as the corporate income tax cut to 20 per cent this year would slash annual revenue by another Bt80 billion. Wanee estimated that if corporate earnings show annualised growth by 25 per cent or more, this would compensate for the missing revenue. The department aims to collect Bt1.77 trillion this fiscal year.

 

 The Nation 2013-04-23