Monday, September 23, 2013

Return of the house = a maturing market

I saw this article in Pattaya Realestate Magazine and thought i would share it. An interesting look at Pattaya's changing housing market. Enjoy



MG 2397

Return of the house = a maturing market

My doctor in Bangkok is a cagey 70-year-old veteran. Whenever he sees me, he’ll take a gander at my X-rays, or blood tests, or results from whatever diagnostic gismo I’ve been examined with, then look me right in the eye and ask: “How do you feel?”
This seemingly harmless and open-ended question usually draws every bit of information he needs out of me. I ramble on, jumping from symptom to symptom; occasionally offering my own diagnosis and opinion on exactly why my 52-year-old body is betraying me. He doesn’t have to prod or pry. We don’t have to play 20 questions. He gets all the information he needs in one shot.
Brain-picking

I borrow his technique when I want to find out what’s going on in a particular property market. The other week I was in Pattaya and paid a visit to my usual cadre of real estate rangers. Some hate to see me walk in the door, because they know it’s brain-picking time.

But, most of them are relieved as it is a rare opportunity to tell the truth with no spin, shine or exaggeration regarding the prevailing property market on the Chonburi Coast. I am neither buyer nor a seller.

I am well-versed in how the real estate business in Thailand works, so there’s no need to educate me. Most importantly, I am known for keeping my promise of anonymity.

My opening question and invitation to confess is always the same: “What’s selling?” I don’t want to hear about which developer has a new project. I don’t care who lost their best sales person. Whether or not a project has gotten EIA approval does not interest me. Just tell me what kind of property you’ve sold lately and who you sold it to. It’s that simple.
Living pool

Useful anecdotes
Usually they respond to me the same way I do with my physician. I learn what has sold, how much it sold for, who it was sold to and naturally some useful anecdotes and opinions on the direction of the market.

It has been nearly two years since I last conducted such a survey. The recent results were eye-opening, but confirmed my sneaking suspicion that things were changing in and around Fun City.

One longtime veteran in the Pattaya property trenches put it very succinctly … “Sellin’ a lot of houses, dude … a lot of houses”. I was overjoyed. I’ve been predicting this for a long time. But, I guess if you predict something for long enough, it will eventually happen.

What’s more, I wanted it to happen. In my decade and a half here in Thailand, the most money I ever made coupled with the most creative satisfaction was building and selling houses. It thrills the crap out of me to see the trend arrive here in Bangkok Beach.
Out of 10 property jockeys I spoke with, two said nothing was selling, two said they were flogging a whole bunch of 31 sqm people boxes, and the other six all expressed a surprised elation at selling single family dwellings … mostly in East Pattaya.
I discarded the first two as lazy remoras and the second two as “captive shops” with their signage and marketing material paid for by the ruling oligarchy of high-rise developers.

Not surprisingly, the six agents who said they were selling houses are some of the oldest and most established firms in the area. In fact, more than half of them make their bread and butter serving the corporate relocation and working expatriate market. I keep telling people Pattaya is a real city and here is more proof!

But why are houses suddenly in vogue? And who is buying them? Enquiring minds want to know!

I believe the answer to these questions comes in three parts. Houses have changed, buyers have changed, and Pattaya has changed.

Pt1 Houses have changed

Last year while researching housing developments in East Pattaya and also the far southern end, I learned a lot about how the design, style and construction quality of houses has morphed in and around the city. (See the Tales of the Darkside series and Goin’ South series archived on our website at www.remthai.com) It appears to me there have been three distinct stages of development over the past 15 years or so.

Keep in mind, I’m not talking about “one off” houses where someone has secured some land and built their own single house. I’m referring to proper housing developments. The original development style was focused on two axioms: 1) build them all the same; 2) build as many as you can on the land you have. The houses themselves were a hybrid design of Thai sensibility and mimicry of what they thought a foreigner’s house was like. Most were built in the ubiquitous “Thai-Bali” style … or what they thought we thought Thai-Bali looked like.

Outdoor kitchens, maid rooms and those hideous little ceramic columns surrounding tiny outdoor verandas are dead giveaways of housing produced during this era. Semi-spacious farang-style living rooms were prone to having a single electrical outlet with the wires running through a plastic conduit on the outside of the wall.

No space

There was no space between the houses whatsoever. Where I come from we call these “zero lot-line” houses. If you had a 200 sqm lot; 180 sqm was covered in concrete. Grandiose and ornate entry ways to these developments with imposing security guard shacks were erected first, usually to be torn down later and replaced with shop-houses.

Once most of the project was sold, the developer usually just went on to the next cookie-cutter project to repeat their atrocities. Little or no management was left in place to control or maintain common areas like the streets, clubhouses or communal swimming pools that might have existed.

The design was rudimentary. The quality was sub-standard. The management was non-existent. And, some of those developers are operating in the same manner to this day. Their only saving grace is that they didn’t cost very much.

Then in the late ’90s and early ’00s, a housing renaissance occurred. What I would describe as “American-style” gated communities emerged. Well-lit wide streets, big lots, private swimming pools and a variety of designs.

Unfortunately, many of these were mere façades, like fake Gucci bags. Most of them looked the part with fabulous entrances and almost military security structures. But, alas, the quality was all over the place.

One development in particular comes to mind. (Since I’m going to put it down, I decline to name names). The entrance to this famous East Pattaya estate is one of the most breathtaking I’ve ever seen, complete with modern sculptures and manicured landscape. The houses sit on huge lots, but are only slightly better quality than those built 10 years before.
 

Plagued with bad design, poor material and shoddy workmanship; it’s like wearing a $1,000 suit going to a five star restaurant and ordering a hamburger. “What’s the matter hoss? Spend all your money on the suit?”

Still others sported the fancy storefront and, for the most part, lived up to it. Phu Tara and Siam Royal View in East Pattaya come to mind. Whoever designed these estates understood the concept of luxury gated community living and followed through with some pretty well turned out abodes.The problem here is they kind of over-did it. The “build it and they will come” philosophy backfired. Some of these kinds of homes sit empty or the plots remain available because they are just too expensive. The market for houses in that prices range is yet to mature.

In the past few years up to the present, we have seen a second renaissance I’d call the modern age of practicality. Today’s Pattaya home builder has employed some reverse-engineering. Houses are geared towards what the buying public want, not some grand vision of the developer.
Whispering Palms (6)

Smart houses

Ornate ridiculous entrances and unused theme park-like common areas have been replaced with value-added features for each house. LED lighting, solar-powered water heaters, salt water swimming pools and “smart” houses that are so wired-up you can cook dinner on your way home with your iPhone.

Developments like Sedona, Whispering Palms and Greenfield Villas mirror North American communities with their open plan houses and flexible floor-plans. Professional management ensures the investment buyers make isn’t degraded by their neighbours. 

Forward thinking designers like Silver Hills in Bang Saray give buyers huge lots with a long list of “green” features and “smart house” gadgetry. Now a “luxury gated community” is just that and not a poor copy of a Rolex watch.

In my opinion, among the most shining examples of how far housing has come are the projects offered by BravoThai – The Vineyards Phase III and the recently unveiled Amaya Hill. The designs are modern, flexible and timeless. The execution is precise and completed with the highest quality materials.

The genius of these developments is in the planning. Instead of creating homes and shoving them down the consumer’s throat, the folks at BravoThai delineated specific markets and set out to satisfy them.

The Vineyards Phase III is a small-ish development with only 21 units. It is an intimate project with big plots. The houses are spacious open-plan affairs with plenty of garden and swimming pool.

Minimalist styling allows owners to bend the décor to their will. On-site amenities like a coffee shop, fitness centre, taxi/mini-bus service, pool cleaning, house-sitting and maid services tell the tale of exactly who these houses are targeting.

Priced at Bt13-20m, limited to a small close-knit community and chock full of convenient amenities, it is quite obvious this place is aimed at retirees.

Award recognition

Apparently BravoThai know what’s what as half the units have been sold in less than one year. All phases of The Vineyards have been recognised repeatedly at the Thailand Property Awards 2011 and 2012 and Pacific Property Awards 2012 and 2013.
Amaya Hill targets a different group. With 85 units planned, it is a much larger project with smaller plots. Built on an elevated knoll near Lake Mabprachan, Amaya Hill enjoys great location, access to the motorway and views of Pattaya in the distance. The houses mirror the design of The Vineyards with their clean minimalist lines and practical layout.

According to Adam Coulson, sales executive for BravoThai, Amaya Hill is geared more toward families. Floor-plans range from 128sqm to 240sqm. Lots can be combined and floor-plans rearranged.Prices run from Bt7-15m. Adam described the homes at Amaya Hill as “affordable luxury” and I must agree.

Once again the boys from BravoThai seem to have found the mark as many of the units on the first phase are sold and they don’t even have a showroom yet.

In the future I would expect any switched-on development company to follow BravoThai’s lead. Terrence (Terry) Collins, MD of BravoThai, said it best: “People don’t want a discount … they want a lot of house for their money.”

It occurs to me that BravoThai have taken the developer’s ego out of the equation and decided to “just give the people what they want”. This is a very definitive shift in house builder philosophy.

Pt2 Buyers have changed

So, what has changed about the oh-so-elusive consumer? Are they the same people who used to buy condos with a different mindset? Or, are they a different group altogether? The answer is … a little of both.

Terry Collins again: “Consumer trust has flipped.” We discussed the old condo developer fear tactics used in the past. “You can’t own it … you can’t own it!” the condo mongers would say referring to houses; playing on the fears of buyers that the only property legal for a foreigner to own in Thailand was a (49 per cent) condo.
Now, not only have buyers become more educated and comfortable with the various methods one might “own” a house, some are becoming increasingly suspect of condominiums.

“People are afraid some of these condos aren’t going to get built,” said one veteran agent. Indeed, construction delays, design changes and rampant rumours of developer insolvency have some property buyers looking at condos with a suspicious eye.

Of course it is only the very few condos that deserve to be viewed with such suspicion but the “one bad apple” rule can still affect the rest of the condo builders’ “barrel” in the perception of buyers.
“People want to feel in control,” said Terry Collins. “While the buyer is waiting for a 40-storey high-rise to get built, he is at the mercy of the developer. With a house, the owner can come to inspect progress every day, and payment is based on pre-set benchmarks, not the developers’ need for cash flow.”

Potential buyers

My personal experience has seen some changes in the characteristics of potential buyers. Last December, my big three-bedroom condo in Jomtien Beach was vacant and for rent. This place is 168 sqm and feels like a house connected to the end of a condo. Many prospective renters consider it instead of a house.
In three days I had three couples from three different countries looking at it, but all for the same reason. Each and every one included a male head of household that had recently been re-posted to an industrial estate near Pattaya.

Two worked with companies forced out of Bangkok by the floods who chose to relocate rather than rebuild. The other was with a multi-national conglomerate that was planting their flag in advance of the AEC inauguration in 2015. No punters, sex-patriots or fugitives … just real people that needed real housing.
Overheated Asian economies have also changed the face of who is buying houses here.

More than one agent told the story of Singaporeans who can’t afford to retire in their own country, choosing Thailand for its fresh air and easy way of life. The same goes for Hong Kong Chinese that are falling victim to mainland Nuevo-riche Chinese driving real estate prices to the stratosphere.

Disgruntled North Americans and Europeans make up a hefty slice of the house-buying pie. Rising inflation and taxes create new expatriates every day.

Adam Coulson from BravoThai told me he’d had a flurry of French buyers who are fed up with the exorbitant taxes and political turmoil of their own country. I meet more of my own countrymen every month who also weary of carrying an increasingly top-heavy government on their back.

According to Adam, the off-shore worker making off-shore money no longer feels the urge to repatriate their hard earned cash to their native countries. He considers them the “perfect buyer”.
And, let’s remember that Thai people make up the lion’s share of real estate purchasers whether it is houses or condos.


“Thai people are using agents now,” said Adam. “We haven’t seen that before.” Traditionally Thai buyers used word-of-mouth and personal connections to lead them to a purchase.

Apparently they’ve gotten over the idea of paying a commission and are learning about the higher quality and better design of some Pattaya developers (even if they are farangs).

Pt3 Pattaya has changed

Now, I know it is taboo to say this, but the riots and floods of recent years did Pattaya a favour by forcing Bangkok Thais down the road to see how things had changed. Primary infrastructure like the motorway and other roads make it easier to get here and get around. Secondary infrastructure like schools, hospitals and major shopping venues create a much more livable environment.

The new generation of Thais isn’t affected by Pattaya’s old stigma of Thailand’s “brothel-by-the-sea” reputation. They see Pattaya for what it is; a dynamic and vibrant resort town. It’s easy to get here, bristling with all kinds of healthy recreation and quite a bargain compared to other regional competitors.

Having a little condo for weekend getaways is nice. Owning a big house with a private garden and swimming pool is better.
So, this month I played doctor with the Pattaya property market by making a house call and asking it: “How do you feel?” After hearing it ramble on for a couple of days about changes in developments, changes in consumers and changes in Pattaya, I came to the same conclusion my grumpy old doctor always arrives at about me. “You’re okay,” he’ll say. “You’re just getting older”

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